2016 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

14·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Brian Hoyer

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

48

Model margin

+2.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.4%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +0.07CPOE-0.10
  • 42.7%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.41
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:0137Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:371167Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 6:3532Punt0–7
CHIQ1 5:58511Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:28512Punt0–7
CHIQ1 0:41629Punt0–7
DETQ2 11:5034Punt0–7
CHIQ2 10:561042Turnover on downs0–7
DETQ2 6:301136Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 2:19539Missed field goal3–7
CHIQ2 0:5114Missed field goal3–7
DETQ2 0:39117Turnover3–7
DETQ2 0:33112Turnover3–7
DETQ2 0:2739Turnover3–7
CHIQ2 0:08222End of half3–7
DETQ3 15:001271Field goal6–7
CHIQ3 7:18785Touchdown6–14
DETQ3 3:34536Punt6–14
CHIQ3 1:001073Field goal6–17
DETQ4 10:091557Turnover6–17
CHIQ4 4:03523Opp touchdown14–17
CHIQ4 1:5200End of half14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3621302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick11312.80
Matthew Stafford2178.50
Zach Zenner3124.00
Dwayne Washington263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones57740
Eric Ebron45420
Anquan Boldin68310
Theo Riddick47270
Zach Zenner11220
Andre Roberts1180
Dwayne Washington1180
Golden Tate1410
Khari Lee0100
Cole Wick0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer28/3630220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard231114.80
Joique Bell362.00
Brian Hoyer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Royal771111
Kevin White69550
Alshon Jeffery35460
Zach Miller33311
Cameron Meredith45280
Jordan Howard34210
Logan Paulsen23100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

6.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.01
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.82