Closing spread
DET -3
Total
48
Model margin
+2.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.042
- 45.4%Success rate44.1%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.07CPOE-0.10
- 42.7%Third-down rate37.8%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 2.05Points / drive1.41
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/36 | 213 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Khari Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Wick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 28/36 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 23 | 111 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Royal | 7 | 7 | 111 | 1 |
| Kevin White | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Cameron Meredith | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82