2016 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

20·27

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

40

Model margin

+2.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.079
  • 45.5%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.049EPA / rush-0.154
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +1.12CPOE-3.29
  • 45.6%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00541Touchdown0–0
HOUQ1 12:03434Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 10:3139Punt0–7
HOUQ1 8:21665Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 5:34642Field goal3–14
HOUQ1 2:36955Field goal3–17
TENQ2 13:42578Touchdown10–17
HOUQ2 11:21639Missed field goal10–17
TENQ2 8:25311Turnover10–17
HOUQ2 6:5510Turnover10–17
TENQ2 6:44939Touchdown17–17
HOUQ2 2:28519Punt17–17
TENQ2 1:1533Punt17–17
HOUQ2 0:4649Field goal17–20
TENQ2 0:0716End of half17–20
TENQ3 15:001569Field goal20–20
HOUQ3 7:04731Turnover20–20
TENQ3 3:4435Opp touchdown20–27
TENQ3 0:5639Punt20–27
HOUQ4 14:10311Punt20–27
TENQ4 12:3574Punt20–27
HOUQ4 10:051149Turnover on downs20–27
TENQ4 4:34835Turnover on downs20–27
HOUQ4 1:4736Punt20–27
TENQ4 0:04110End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/2920201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray25953.82
Marcus Mariota4205.00
Derrick Henry393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews22820
Delanie Walker28340
Andre Johnson35330
DeMarco Murray22240
Tajae Sharpe27150
Kendall Wright23140
Anthony Fasano0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler25/3725422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller19824.30
Alfred Blue3196.30
Brock Osweiler11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller79811
Ryan Griffin35540
C.J. Fiedorowicz45481
Jaelen Strong56310
Lamar Miller33260
DeAndre Hopkins1640
Alfred Blue1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.06