Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
40
Model margin
+2.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.079
- 45.5%Success rate41.9%
- +0.103EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.154
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- +1.12CPOE-3.29
- 45.6%Third-down rate36.9%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.72Points / drive1.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/29 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 25 | 95 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 2 | 82 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 25/37 | 254 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 7 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Jaelen Strong | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.06