Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutDeMarcus WareLBForearm· DNP
- QuestionableKayvon WebsterCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTrevor SiemianQBleft Shoulder· Limited
Chargers
- OutBrandon FlowersCBConcussion· DNP
- OutJahleel AddaeSCollarbone· DNP
- QuestionableChris HairstonTGroin· Limited
- QuestionableCraig MagerCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDenzel PerrymanLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDexter McClusterRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJoe BarksdaleTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableOrlando FranklinGAnkle· Limited
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:38 | 18 | 70 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 10:35 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:48 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 5:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q2 3:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:17 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q2 1:05 | 4 | 13 | End of half | 3–10 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q3 12:51 | 4 | 51 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| DEN | Q3 10:41 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q3 9:15 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| DEN | Q3 7:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–16 |
| LAC | Q3 6:22 | 9 | 25 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| DEN | Q3 3:31 | 7 | 47 | Missed field goal | 3–19 |
| LAC | Q3 0:09 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–21 |
| DEN | Q4 12:04 | 1 | 0 | Safety | 3–21 |
| LAC | Q4 11:59 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| DEN | Q4 11:57 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q4 8:08 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q4 5:45 | 8 | 44 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q4 3:35 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q4 3:03 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| LAC | Q4 0:27 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 13–21 |
| DEN | Q4 0:26 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 13–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 30/50 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 3 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.