2016 · Week 6 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
45
Model margin
+3.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.118
- 43.8%Success rate48.2%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.033
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.6%
- -0.81CPOE+4.99
- 38.3%Third-down rate44.9%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.32
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 11/22 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/34 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 16 | 135 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Rob Kelley | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60