2016 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

20·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

45

Model margin

+3.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.118
  • 43.8%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.033
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -0.81CPOE+4.99
  • 38.3%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.32
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
PHIQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:17719Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:0730Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:00418Punt0–0
PHIQ1 5:08510Punt0–0
WASQ1 2:22366Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 0:51515Punt0–7
WASQ2 13:19990Touchdown6–14
PHIQ2 7:4800Touchdown7–14
WASQ2 7:37619Opp touchdown14–14
WASQ2 3:551473Touchdown14–21
PHIQ2 0:0600End of half14–21
WASQ3 15:001256Field goal14–24
PHIQ3 8:40834Punt14–24
WASQ3 3:58538Punt14–24
PHIQ3 1:46875Field goal17–24
WASQ4 12:56753Field goal17–27
PHIQ4 9:43984Field goal20–27
WASQ4 5:2032Punt20–27
PHIQ4 4:0585Punt20–27
WASQ4 1:38360End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz11/2217900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews9606.70
Darren Sproles4205.00
Kenjon Barner263.00
Wendell Smallwood461.50
Carson Wentz221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews37750
Nelson Agholor34340
Dorial Green-Beckham14230
Zach Ertz13220
Wendell Smallwood12140
Trey Burton1170
Darren Sproles1140

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins18/3426321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones161358.41
Rob Kelley55911.80
Chris Thompson9374.10
Kirk Cousins284.00
Jamison Crowder1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon611770
DeSean Jackson49550
Jamison Crowder34521
Vernon Davis24501
Chris Thompson33290
Ryan Grant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.60