2016 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

25·28

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.056EPA / play-0.004
  • 44.9%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.076EPA / dropback+0.062
  • +0.028EPA / rush-0.092
  • 10.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.94CPOE+4.52
  • 41.7%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.80
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001579Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 7:28413Punt0–3
MIAQ1 4:2233Punt0–3
BUFQ1 2:48520Field goal3–3
MIAQ1 0:49426Punt3–3
BUFQ2 14:37740Touchdown10–3
MIAQ2 11:471268Field goal10–6
BUFQ2 3:47637Punt10–6
MIAQ2 0:49218End of half10–6
BUFQ3 15:0039Punt10–6
MIAQ3 12:3179Punt10–6
BUFQ3 9:4130Punt10–6
MIAQ3 7:333-1Punt16–6
BUFQ3 6:00167Touchdown17–6
MIAQ3 5:511075Touchdown17–14
BUFQ3 0:18632Punt17–14
MIAQ4 12:13559Punt17–14
BUFQ4 9:203-5Punt17–14
MIAQ4 7:45749Touchdown17–21
BUFQ4 3:5630Punt17–21
MIAQ4 3:27370Touchdown17–28
BUFQ4 2:241554Touchdown25–28
MIAQ4 0:1400End of half25–28

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor14/2822110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor7355.01
Mike Gillislee5204.00
LeSean McCoy8111.40
Reggie Bush111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin47931
Brandon Tate22310
Charles Clay25290
Justin Hunter24250
Walt Powell24230
Reggie Bush12130
Nick O'Leary1170

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill15/2520410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi282147.61
Ryan Tannehill6213.50
Damien Williams4164.01
Arian Foster351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills581001
Jarvis Landry58780
DeVante Parker34200
Arian Foster1340
Jay Ajayi1120
Damien Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36