Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play-0.004
- 44.9%Success rate42.2%
- +0.076EPA / dropback+0.062
- +0.028EPA / rush-0.092
- 10.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.94CPOE+4.52
- 41.7%Third-down rate37.0%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.08Points / drive1.80
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 14/28 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Walt Powell | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/25 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 28 | 214 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36