Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.127
- 44.1%Success rate45.9%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.243
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.138
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- -0.10CPOE+2.71
- 37.8%Third-down rate47.4%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.41Points / drive2.39
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 6/15 | 81 | 0 | 2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 4/11 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'Deem Carey | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 39/56 | 326 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Don Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 13 | 16 | 132 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 11 | 15 | 95 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 10 | 13 | 66 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Don Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.01
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.70