2016 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Brian Hoyer

10·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.127
  • 44.1%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.138
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -0.10CPOE+2.71
  • 37.8%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.39
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
CHIQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:121253Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 8:53625Punt0–3
GBQ1 6:391251Turnover on downs0–3
CHIQ1 0:151133Punt0–3
GBQ2 10:13721Punt0–3
CHIQ2 6:34854Field goal3–3
GBQ2 1:561035Field goal3–6
CHIQ2 0:1700End of half3–6
GBQ3 15:003-14Opp touchdown10–6
GBQ3 14:301385Touchdown10–13
CHIQ3 9:11726Punt10–13
GBQ3 4:35884Touchdown10–20
CHIQ4 14:5531Punt10–20
GBQ4 14:081557Touchdown10–26
CHIQ4 5:35514Turnover10–26
GBQ4 4:27635Missed field goal10–26
CHIQ4 1:35437Turnover10–26
GBQ4 0:4100End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley6/158102
Brian Hoyer4/114900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ka'Deem Carey10484.80
Jordan Howard7223.10
Matt Barkley1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller25400
Alshon Jeffery311330
Josh Bellamy24320
Cameron Meredith12120
Ka'Deem Carey1190
Deonte Thompson1240
Jordan Howard0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers39/5632630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery9606.70
Randall Cobb5214.20
Aaron Rodgers273.50
Don Jackson263.00
Knile Davis210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams13161322
Randall Cobb1115951
Ty Montgomery1013660
Jordy Nelson1490
Jeff Janis2590
Richard Rodgers1170
Don Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.01
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.70