Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play+0.037
- 45.9%Success rate45.5%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.049
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.05CPOE+1.12
- 42.8%Third-down rate45.6%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 2.10Points / drive1.72
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 27/39 | 353 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 12 | 133 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 9 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Erik Swoope | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 5 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 22/37 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 25 | 107 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.52