2016 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

34·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.045EPA / play+0.037
  • 45.9%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.049
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.05CPOE+1.12
  • 42.8%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.72
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:001068Touchdown0–6
INDQ1 9:141167Touchdown7–6
TENQ1 4:4635Punt7–6
INDQ1 3:1735Punt7–6
TENQ1 2:09840Punt7–6
INDQ2 13:40693Touchdown14–6
TENQ2 10:1600Field goal14–6
INDQ2 10:12635Field goal17–6
TENQ2 7:06520Punt17–6
INDQ2 5:29648Punt17–6
TENQ2 2:121253Touchdown17–13
INDQ2 0:3400End of half17–13
INDQ3 15:00520Punt17–13
TENQ3 12:23517Punt17–13
INDQ3 9:501158Field goal20–13
TENQ3 3:461655Touchdown20–20
INDQ4 12:39616Punt20–20
TENQ4 9:41735Field goal20–23
INDQ4 6:021482Touchdown27–23
TENQ4 1:551-11Opp touchdown34–23
TENQ4 1:47549Field goal34–26
INDQ4 0:4300End of half34–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck27/3935330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17613.60
Andrew Luck5173.40
Robert Turbin231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton7121331
Jack Doyle910781
Erik Swoope25510
Chester Rogers23300
Frank Gore55221
Devin Street13200
Robert Turbin11190

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota22/3723220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray251074.31
Marcus Mariota2147.00
Derrick Henry133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker78841
Tajae Sharpe46590
Rishard Matthews47370
DeMarco Murray35200
Kendall Wright24120
Anthony Fasano12100
Andre Johnson0200
Derrick Henry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.52