Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.037
- 41.3%Success rate45.5%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.210EPA / rush-0.049
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -4.51CPOE+1.12
- 34.7%Third-down rate45.6%
- 71.4%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.52Points / drive1.72
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 33/54 | 337 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 7 | 11 | 98 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 15 | 70 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 18/22 | 270 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 21 | 123 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64