2016 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

22·36

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.037
  • 41.3%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.210EPA / rush-0.049
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -4.51CPOE+1.12
  • 34.7%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 71.4%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.52Points / drive1.72
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:00534Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:21512Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:051044Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 3:3137Punt0–3
TENQ1 1:52466Touchdown0–10
JAXQ2 14:5334Punt0–10
TENQ2 14:01854Touchdown0–17
JAXQ2 10:3636Punt0–17
TENQ2 8:52462Touchdown0–24
JAXQ2 7:09831Punt0–24
TENQ2 3:131194Field goal0–27
JAXQ3 15:001175Touchdown8–27
TENQ3 11:05775Touchdown8–33
JAXQ3 6:53525Punt8–33
TENQ3 4:50417Punt8–33
TENQ3 2:42835Field goal8–36
JAXQ4 12:321366Turnover on downs8–36
TENQ4 8:0238Punt8–36
JAXQ4 5:19853Touchdown15–36
TENQ4 3:1135Punt15–36
JAXQ4 2:331291Touchdown22–36
TENQ4 0:0100End of half22–36

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles33/5433730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles4225.50
T.J. Yeldon3206.70
Chris Ivory461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns711981
Allen Robinson615700
Ben Koyack55410
T.J. Yeldon44360
Julius Thomas36281
Marcedes Lewis46230
Marqise Lee13210
Bryan Walters22141
Chris Ivory1160
Arrelious Benn0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota18/2227020
Matt Cassel1/11000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray211235.91
Derrick Henry16603.81
Kendall Wright11515.00
Marcus Mariota3113.70
Delanie Walker133.00
Matt Cassel122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright45841
Delanie Walker45750
Rishard Matthews44381
Derrick Henry45370
Phillip Supernaw11300
Tajae Sharpe11110
DeMarco Murray1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.64