Closing spread
DAL -5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.126
- 43.8%Success rate48.6%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.226
- -0.121EPA / rush+0.006
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.81CPOE+4.07
- 38.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.52
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 32/43 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 11 | 15 | 65 | 1 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/39 | 287 | 2 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 14 | 113 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.04