2016 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

23·29

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.126
  • 43.8%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.226
  • -0.121EPA / rush+0.006
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.81CPOE+4.07
  • 38.3%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.52
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:0069Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:50945Field goal3–0
DALQ1 6:39575Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 4:4139Punt3–7
DALQ1 3:10852Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 14:50715Punt3–10
DALQ2 10:1838Punt3–10
PHIQ2 8:461046Touchdown10–10
DALQ2 3:41768Turnover10–10
PHIQ2 1:26743Field goal13–10
PHIQ3 15:0036Punt13–10
DALQ3 12:3938Punt13–10
PHIQ3 10:301364Touchdown20–10
DALQ3 6:201170Field goal20–13
PHIQ3 0:56624Field goal23–13
DALQ4 14:0930Punt23–13
PHIQ4 13:051-5Turnover23–13
DALQ4 12:5835Field goal23–16
PHIQ4 11:341039Punt23–16
DALQ4 6:2612100Touchdown23–23
PHIQ4 3:0436Punt23–23
DALQ4 1:4230Punt23–23
PHIQ4 1:134-1Punt23–23
DALQ4 0:382-10End of half23–23
DALOT1275Touchdown23–29

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz32/4320210
Josh Huff0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles15865.70
Ryan Mathews4102.51
Kenjon Barner393.00
Carson Wentz1-3-3.00
Wendell Smallwood1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews1115651
Dorial Green-Beckham59550
Nelson Agholor34250
Zach Ertz44190
Darren Sproles57170
Josh Huff1190
Trey Burton1260
Kenjon Barner1150
Ryan Mathews1110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/3928721
Cole Beasley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott22964.40
Dak Prescott7385.41
Lucky Whitehead11717.00
Alfred Morris362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant4141131
Cole Beasley47530
Ezekiel Elliott44520
Terrance Williams27250
Brice Butler13190
Jason Witten23161
Geoff Swaim1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.04