Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 20/38 | 276 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.