Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutCraig MagerCBConcussion· DNP
- OutJeremiah AttaochuLBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulJahleel AddaeSCollarbone· Limited
- QuestionableDenzel PerrymanLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableHunter HenryTEConcussion· Full
- QuestionableTravis BenjaminWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTyrell WilliamsWRKnee· Limited
Broncos
- OutC.J. AndersonRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAqib TalibCBLow Back· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon MarshallLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDeMarcus WareLBForearm· Limited
- QuestionableMatt ParadisCHip· DNP
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 11:05 | 7 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q1 7:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q1 4:16 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:59 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q1 2:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:10 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DEN | Q2 13:08 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:56 | 5 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:57 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 4:37 | 10 | 47 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 0:54 | 5 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:14 | 2 | -3 | End of half | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q3 13:30 | 2 | 10 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 12:45 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q3 12:30 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LAC | Q3 11:44 | 14 | 105 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| DEN | Q3 4:02 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| LAC | Q4 12:32 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 13–24 |
| DEN | Q4 9:43 | 5 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 19–24 |
| DEN | Q4 8:02 | 5 | 71 | Field goal | 19–27 |
| LAC | Q4 5:19 | 11 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 19–27 |
| DEN | Q4 2:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 19–27 |
| LAC | Q4 2:08 | 6 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 19–27 |
| DEN | Q4 1:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 20/38 | 276 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.