Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutAqib TalibCBBack· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon MarshallLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableKayvon WebsterCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMatt ParadisCHip· Limited
Raiders
- OutStacy McGeeDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAmari CooperWRBack· Limited
- QuestionableJamize OlawaleRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMenelik WatsonTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSean SmithCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableVadal AlexanderGAnkle· Limited
- DNPDonald PennTNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:33 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 10:21 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 9:19 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q1 4:52 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 3:35 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| DEN | Q2 14:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 12:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–13 |
| DEN | Q2 11:53 | 7 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 8:22 | 6 | 41 | Missed field goal | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q2 4:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 3:04 | 9 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| DEN | Q2 1:25 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 10–20 |
| DEN | Q3 8:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–20 |
| LV | Q3 7:45 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 10–20 |
| DEN | Q3 4:34 | 12 | 51 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| LV | Q4 14:56 | 10 | 68 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| DEN | Q4 8:19 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 13–23 |
| LV | Q4 7:13 | 7 | 4 | Touchdown | 13–30 |
| DEN | Q4 6:09 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| LV | Q4 5:18 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 20–30 |
| DEN | Q4 2:20 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 20–30 |
| LV | Q4 1:57 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 18/37 | 283 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapri Bibbs | 1 | 1 | 69 | 1 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 11 | 47 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.