2016 · Week 9 · Division

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

22·16

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.4%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.253
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +0.07CPOE+3.80
  • 42.7%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.65
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:14857Field goal3–0
MINQ1 7:14628Punt3–0
DETQ1 4:2339Punt3–0
MINQ1 2:551161Field goal3–3
DETQ2 13:20212Turnover3–3
MINQ2 12:254-7Punt3–3
DETQ2 9:501993Touchdown10–3
MINQ2 0:0500End of half10–3
DETQ3 15:0032Punt10–3
MINQ3 12:5032Punt10–3
DETQ3 10:3534Punt10–3
MINQ3 9:351061Touchdown10–9
DETQ3 4:023-1Punt10–9
MINQ3 2:54931Missed field goal10–9
DETQ4 13:4143Field goal13–9
MINQ4 12:33864Turnover on downs13–9
DETQ4 8:09623Punt13–9
MINQ4 4:141374Touchdown13–16
DETQ4 0:23235Field goal16–16
DETOT1274Touchdown22–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3621921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick14705.00
Dwayne Washington10262.60
Golden Tate111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron78920
Golden Tate1112791
Andre Roberts11270
Anquan Boldin24101
Theo Riddick1360
Marvin Jones1550
Dwayne Washington0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford31/4027310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman7304.30
Matt Asiata9273.00
Stefon Diggs11212.00
Jerick McKinnon781.10
Rhett Ellison111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs1314800
Adam Thielen46680
Cordarrelle Patterson68450
Ronnie Hillman11320
Laquon Treadwell11150
Matt Asiata22140
Charles D. Johnson1390
Sam Bradford1150
Rhett Ellison1140
Kyle Rudolph1311

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.89