Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.042
- 45.4%Success rate42.5%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.253
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.07CPOE+3.80
- 42.7%Third-down rate38.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.05Points / drive1.65
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/36 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 7 | 8 | 92 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 11 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 31/40 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 13 | 14 | 80 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.89