Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.074
- 43.8%Success rate40.8%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- -0.81CPOE-1.63
- 38.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.86Points / drive1.46
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 27/47 | 364 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 2 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/36 | 257 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Perkins | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 10 | 46 | 2 |
| Will Tye | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Jerell Adams | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.94