2016 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

23·28

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.074
  • 43.8%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -0.81CPOE-1.63
  • 38.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.46
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:0827Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 13:17231Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 12:2735Turnover0–7
NYGQ1 10:55330Touchdown0–14
PHIQ1 9:43959Field goal3–14
NYGQ1 5:51516Punt3–14
PHIQ1 2:30653Turnover on downs3–14
NYGQ2 14:533-6Punt3–14
PHIQ2 13:44370Touchdown10–14
NYGQ2 12:11769Touchdown10–21
PHIQ2 9:2836Punt10–21
NYGQ2 7:2245Punt10–21
PHIQ2 5:2549Turnover on downs10–21
NYGQ2 3:4539Punt10–21
PHIQ2 2:11549Missed field goal10–21
NYGQ2 1:07517Turnover on downs10–21
PHIQ2 0:192-12End of half10–21
PHIQ3 15:00765Touchdown17–21
NYGQ3 12:171075Touchdown17–28
PHIQ3 7:4131Punt17–28
NYGQ3 5:5544Punt17–28
PHIQ3 4:271380Field goal20–28
NYGQ4 12:01530Turnover20–28
PHIQ4 10:0838Punt20–28
NYGQ4 8:3433Punt20–28
PHIQ4 7:03726Field goal23–28
NYGQ4 3:51517Turnover23–28
PHIQ4 1:48517Turnover on downs23–28
NYGQ4 1:2300End of half23–28

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz27/4736402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles13574.40
Wendell Smallwood22512.50
Ryan Mathews5153.01
Kenjon Barner133.01
Carson Wentz4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz88970
Jordan Matthews610880
Bryce Treggs24690
Trey Burton33550
Nelson Agholor47410
Darren Sproles39140
Ryan Mathews1100
Dorial Green-Beckham0500

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning22/3625742

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Paul Perkins11322.90
Rashad Jennings11262.40
Eli Manning2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard36501
Victor Cruz11460
Odell Beckham Jr.410462
Will Tye47330
Roger Lewis12301
Jerell Adams34240
Paul Perkins33150
Rashad Jennings33130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.94