2016 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

14·21

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

-1.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.060
  • 46.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.100
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +1.74CPOE-0.41
  • 41.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.24Points / drive1.63
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:26721Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:4035Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:04747Turnover0–0
PITQ1 5:41531Punt0–0
BALQ1 1:50296Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 1:0745Punt0–7
BALQ2 14:4734Punt0–7
PITQ2 12:3447Punt0–7
BALQ2 11:051017Punt0–7
PITQ2 6:2738Punt0–7
BALQ2 4:1938Punt0–7
PITQ2 3:2238Punt0–7
BALQ2 1:44939Field goal0–10
PITQ2 0:0300End of half0–10
BALQ3 15:00731Punt0–10
PITQ3 9:3735Punt0–10
BALQ3 8:333-5Punt0–10
PITQ3 6:2710Turnover0–10
BALQ3 6:2038Field goal0–13
PITQ3 4:503-2Punt0–13
BALQ3 3:1866Punt0–13
PITQ4 15:0047Opp touchdown0–21
PITQ4 13:361071Touchdown7–21
BALQ4 8:3839Punt7–21
PITQ4 6:501565Turnover on downs7–21
BALQ4 3:043-5Punt7–21
PITQ4 2:08765Touchdown14–21
BALQ4 0:4800End of half14–21
BALQ4 0:4400End of half14–21
BALQ4 0:0000End of half14–21

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/4526411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell14322.30
Ben Roethlisberger331.01
DeAngelo Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eli Rogers6101030
Antonio Brown711851
Le'Veon Bell69380
David Johnson12150
Jesse James24130
Xavier Grimble11100
Darrius Heyward-Bey0200
Cobi Hamilton0100
Sammie Coates0500

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/3024111
Ryan Mallett1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West15211.40
Kenneth Dixon9131.40
Joe Flacco3124.00
Chris Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace461241
Steve Smith47470
Breshad Perriman34330
Darren Waller23170
Dennis Pitta23140
Kamar Aiken1290
Terrance West1360
Kenneth Dixon2200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.16