Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
-1.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.060
- 46.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.74CPOE-0.41
- 41.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.24Points / drive1.63
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/45 | 264 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Rogers | 6 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/30 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 15 | 21 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 124 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.16