Closing spread
PIT -8
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutCameron HeywardDEPectoral· DNP
- OutDarrius Heyward-BeyWRFoot· DNP
- OutDeAngelo WilliamsRBKnee· DNP
- OutMarkus WheatonWRShoulder· DNP
- OutShamarko ThomasSGroin· DNP
- QuestionableJordan DangerfieldSGroin· Full
- QuestionableXavier GrimbleTEQuadricep· Limited
Browns
- QuestionableTramon WilliamsCBKnee· DNP
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.050
- 46.0%Success rate39.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.131
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.74CPOE-1.42
- 41.9%Third-down rate36.2%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.24Points / drive1.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999
Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:46 | 15 | 87 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 2:28 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:11 | 15 | 73 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| CLE | Q2 4:43 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 6–0 |
| PIT | Q2 1:51 | 13 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CLE | Q3 13:05 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| PIT | Q3 8:05 | 15 | 76 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| CLE | Q3 0:03 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–9 |
| PIT | Q4 9:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–9 |
| CLE | Q4 8:08 | 6 | -2 | Punt | 17–9 |
| PIT | Q4 5:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–9 |
| CLE | Q4 3:49 | 2 | -13 | Opp touchdown | 24–9 |
| CLE | Q4 3:36 | 18 | 51 | End of half | 24–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/36 | 167 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 28 | 146 | 5.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Ladarius Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 7/14 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 14/27 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrelle Pryor | 5 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 4 | 12 | 39 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 6 | 23 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 5 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-2.59