Closing spread
IND -3
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.045
- 45.5%Success rate45.9%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.12CPOE+1.05
- 45.6%Third-down rate42.8%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 1.72Points / drive2.10
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 25/38 | 290 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 9 | 13 | 122 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 4 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 15/28 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 9 | 97 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 4 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.52