2016 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

17·24

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

53.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Nothing filed.

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.045
  • 45.5%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.049EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.12CPOE+1.05
  • 45.6%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.10
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:38941Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 8:393-7Punt0–7
INDQ1 6:27775Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 2:32530Punt0–14
INDQ1 0:23980Touchdown0–21
TENQ2 10:35646Punt0–21
INDQ2 7:191055Missed field goal0–21
TENQ2 2:131268Touchdown7–21
INDQ2 0:2000End of half7–21
INDQ3 15:003-3Punt7–21
TENQ3 13:2146Turnover on downs7–21
INDQ3 11:5430Punt7–21
TENQ3 11:25998Touchdown14–21
INDQ3 6:35723Punt14–21
TENQ3 3:071159Field goal17–21
INDQ4 12:14444Field goal17–24
TENQ4 10:5054Punt17–24
INDQ4 7:5310Turnover17–24
TENQ4 7:441439Turnover on downs17–24
INDQ4 2:42316End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota25/3829020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray21703.30
Marcus Mariota5295.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews9131220
Tajae Sharpe47681
Kendall Wright46520
Delanie Walker46360
DeMarco Murray3391
Harry Douglas1130

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck15/2826221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore18502.80
Andrew Luck8222.80
Robert Turbin242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton59971
Frank Gore44710
Phillip Dorsett13500
Donte Moncrief47371
Jack Doyle1270
Jordan Todman0100
Dwayne Allen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.52