Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.059
- 42.7%Success rate41.0%
- +0.084EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.153
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.15CPOE-0.31
- 38.7%Third-down rate34.4%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.88Points / drive1.51
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 26/44 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 15 | 101 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 20/34 | 368 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 24 | 79 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 10 | 162 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 2 | 76 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Jordan Norwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.49