2016 · Week 12 · Division

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

30·27

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

+1.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.059
  • 42.7%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.153
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.15CPOE-0.31
  • 38.7%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.51
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:5134Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:1932Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:17917Punt0–0
DENQ1 6:14527Punt0–0
KCQ1 3:16934Punt0–0
DENQ2 12:48934Punt0–0
KCQ2 8:1232Punt0–0
DENQ2 7:043-5Safety8–0
KCQ2 6:1600Touchdown9–0
DENQ2 6:04949Field goal9–3
KCQ2 1:473-7Punt9–3
DENQ2 0:4438Punt9–3
KCQ2 0:1300End of half9–3
KCQ3 15:0044Punt9–3
DENQ3 12:571263Touchdown9–10
KCQ3 7:371270Touchdown16–10
DENQ3 0:3036Punt16–10
KCQ4 14:433-6Punt16–10
KCQ4 12:19413Punt16–10
DENQ4 9:244103Touchdown16–17
KCQ4 7:47515Punt16–17
DENQ4 5:376101Touchdown16–24
KCQ4 3:001560Touchdown24–24
DENQ4 0:1200End of half24–24
DENOT1137Field goal24–27
KCOT941Field goal27–27
DENOT831Missed field goal27–27
KCOT327Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith26/4422010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Ware17643.80
Charcandrick West382.70
Knile Davis362.00
Tyreek Hill133.01
Alex Smith221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8151010
Tyreek Hill910521
Spencer Ware22320
Chris Conley34260
Albert Wilson2660
De'Anthony Thomas1140
Demetrius Harris0100
Charcandrick West0100
James O'Shaughnessy11-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian20/3436830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker24793.30
Trevor Siemian5234.60
Kapri Bibbs9222.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders7101621
Bennie Fowler12761
Demaryius Thomas58600
A.J. Derby44430
Devontae Booker12220
Jordan Taylor1461
Jordan Norwood0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.49