Closing spread
DET -2
Total
42
Model margin
+0.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.054
- 42.5%Success rate45.4%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.187
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.80CPOE+0.07
- 38.4%Third-down rate42.7%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.65Points / drive2.05
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 31/37 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 9 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/40 | 232 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 5 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 9 | 69 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.51