2016 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

13·16

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2

Total

42

Model margin

+0.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.054
  • 42.5%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.187
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +3.80CPOE+0.07
  • 38.4%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.05
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:141465Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 0:40938Punt7–7
MINQ2 11:5438Punt7–7
DETQ2 9:50559Field goal7–10
MINQ2 6:45636Turnover on downs7–10
DETQ2 3:4049Turnover on downs7–10
MINQ2 2:0031Punt7–10
DETQ2 1:06637Turnover on downs7–10
MINQ3 15:00523Punt7–10
DETQ3 11:5431Punt7–10
MINQ3 9:45449Field goal10–10
DETQ3 7:03412Punt10–10
MINQ3 5:141391Field goal13–10
DETQ4 12:38611Punt13–10
MINQ4 9:17625Punt13–10
DETQ4 5:02968Field goal13–13
MINQ4 1:4548Turnover13–13
DETQ4 0:3000Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford31/3722401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon9313.40
Matt Asiata5275.41
Cordarrelle Patterson12222.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph910640
Adam Thielen811530
Jerick McKinnon33450
Rhett Ellison12210
Cordarrelle Patterson55150
Matt Asiata33140
Charles D. Johnson22120

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/4023210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick9455.00
Matthew Stafford4307.50
Dwayne Washington5193.80
Zach Zenner100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate57770
Anquan Boldin79691
Marvin Jones411540
Andre Roberts24190
Theo Riddick55130
Eric Ebron0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.51