2016 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Matt Barkley

17·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7.5

Total

42

Model margin

+2.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.054
  • 44.1%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.187
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.10CPOE+0.07
  • 37.8%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.41Points / drive2.05
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00933Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:441265Field goal3–0
DETQ1 1:27524Punt3–0
CHIQ2 14:16634Punt3–0
DETQ2 11:151284Field goal3–3
CHIQ2 4:1741Punt3–3
DETQ2 2:261248Touchdown3–10
CHIQ2 0:1917End of half3–10
CHIQ3 15:00539Punt3–10
DETQ3 11:391039Field goal3–13
CHIQ3 5:35475Touchdown10–13
DETQ3 3:191243Turnover10–13
CHIQ4 12:361024Punt10–13
DETQ4 8:0235Opp touchdown17–13
DETQ4 7:07848Touchdown17–20
CHIQ4 3:171451Turnover on downs17–20
DETQ4 0:1300End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley20/3221210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard13866.60
Jeremy Langford341.30
Ka'Deem Carey122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Meredith68721
Josh Bellamy37450
Daniel Brown66420
Deonte Thompson24280
Jordan Howard25240
Jeremy Langford1110
Daniel Braverman0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3522312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dwayne Washington16644.00
Zach Zenner7365.10
Matthew Stafford4153.81
Golden Tate1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones45670
Golden Tate611580
Anquan Boldin36491
Eric Ebron45320
Dwayne Washington12100
Zach Zenner2290
Andre Roberts0200
Joique Bell11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.67