Closing spread
DET -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.054
- 44.1%Success rate45.4%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.187
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.10CPOE+0.07
- 37.8%Third-down rate42.7%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.41Points / drive2.05
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 20/32 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Meredith | 6 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Josh Bellamy | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 6 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Braverman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/35 | 223 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Washington | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67