2016 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

27·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

WAS -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.017
  • 48.2%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.121
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.99CPOE-0.81
  • 44.9%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.86
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00946Field goal0–3
WASQ1 9:4638Punt0–3
PHIQ1 8:08833Turnover0–3
WASQ1 4:30836Missed field goal0–3
PHIQ1 1:05958Field goal0–6
WASQ2 10:291069Touchdown7–6
PHIQ2 4:111277Touchdown7–13
WASQ2 0:2800End of half7–13
WASQ3 15:003-2Punt7–13
PHIQ3 12:50414Punt7–13
WASQ3 9:57281Touchdown14–13
PHIQ3 9:141360Turnover on downs14–13
WASQ3 3:21659Touchdown21–13
PHIQ3 0:0735Punt21–13
WASQ4 13:3524Opp touchdown21–19
WASQ4 13:1134Punt21–19
PHIQ4 11:271042Field goal21–22
WASQ4 4:59877Touchdown27–22
PHIQ4 1:531048Turnover27–22
WASQ4 0:1200End of half27–22

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins14/2123421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley16633.91
Chris Thompson33812.71
Kirk Cousins461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson341021
Pierre Garcon56591
Jamison Crowder25370
Rob Kelley22250
Jordan Reed11100
Vernon Davis1210
Chris Thompson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz32/4631411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews15604.00
Darren Sproles5275.40
Carson Wentz252.50
Wendell Smallwood331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz10131120
Jordan Matthews810790
Trey Burton710650
Nelson Agholor24220
Paul Turner12160
Darren Sproles23131
Brent Celek2370
Ryan Mathews0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.12