2016 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.017
- 48.2%Success rate43.8%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.121
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.99CPOE-0.81
- 44.9%Third-down rate38.3%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.32Points / drive1.86
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14/21 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 4 | 102 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 32/46 | 314 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10 | 13 | 112 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 8 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 7 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Paul Turner | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.12