Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play-0.042
- 45.9%Success rate44.1%
- +0.243EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- +2.71CPOE-0.10
- 47.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.41
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/31 | 252 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 16 | 162 | 10.1 | 2 |
| Christine Michael | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 10 | 124 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 30/43 | 362 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Thompson | 8 | 10 | 110 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 9 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Daniel Braverman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.24