2016 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

30·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Matt Barkley

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 11°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

-1.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.127EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.9%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +2.71CPOE-0.10
  • 47.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.41
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:00968Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 9:57426Punt7–0
GBQ1 7:451037Punt7–0
CHIQ1 1:3136Punt7–0
GBQ2 14:45567Turnover on downs7–0
CHIQ2 11:12964Field goal7–3
GBQ2 6:0037Punt7–3
CHIQ2 4:24455Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 2:16869Field goal10–10
CHIQ2 0:32434Turnover10–10
CHIQ3 15:001-8Turnover10–10
GBQ3 14:53626Field goal13–10
CHIQ3 11:10418Turnover13–10
GBQ3 9:28868Touchdown20–10
CHIQ3 4:53630Turnover20–10
GBQ3 1:55245Touchdown27–10
CHIQ3 1:03775Touchdown27–17
GBQ4 13:273-3Punt27–17
CHIQ4 11:11969Touchdown27–24
GBQ4 7:3438Punt27–24
CHIQ4 5:421580Field goal27–27
GBQ4 1:19359Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/3125200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery1616210.12
Christine Michael44511.31
Aaron Rodgers3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson7101240
Jared Cook68850
Davante Adams26250
Richard Rodgers11100
Geronimo Allison1170
Ty Montgomery2310
Randall Cobb0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley30/4336223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard17905.31
Jeremy Langford144.00
Ka'Deem Carey111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deonte Thompson8101100
Cameron Meredith9131040
Alshon Jeffery69891
Jordan Howard44230
Jeremy Langford11180
Josh Bellamy13101
Daniel Brown1280
Daniel Braverman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.7%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.24