2016 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

24·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 24°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.052
  • 46.0%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.050
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.74CPOE+2.98
  • 41.9%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.24Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
CINQ1 15:001455Field goal0–3
PITQ1 7:39628Field goal3–3
CINQ1 3:42925Touchdown3–10
PITQ2 15:00417Punt3–10
CINQ2 13:181082Touchdown3–17
PITQ2 9:02850Field goal6–17
CINQ2 5:25622Field goal6–20
PITQ2 2:511059Field goal9–20
CINQ2 0:0600End of half9–20
PITQ3 15:00858Field goal12–20
CINQ3 10:38818Punt12–20
PITQ3 6:23839Field goal15–20
CINQ3 2:05411Turnover15–20
PITQ3 0:01632Field goal18–20
CINQ4 12:253-1Punt18–20
PITQ4 10:51940Touchdown24–20
CINQ4 7:29410Punt24–20
PITQ4 5:531164End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3628610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell23934.00
Sammie Coates294.50
Ben Roethlisberger4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eli Rogers56751
Ladarius Green58720
Antonio Brown35580
Le'Veon Bell58380
Cobi Hamilton12210
David Johnson11120
Sammie Coates14100
Jesse James0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton16/2715701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill20432.11
Rex Burkhead7324.60
Andy Dalton111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell79910
Rex Burkhead23180
Cody Core23130
Tyler Boyd23130
Tyler Eifert1390
Jeremy Hill1180
James Wright1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.14