Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.052
- 46.0%Success rate45.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.050
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.74CPOE+2.98
- 41.9%Third-down rate38.9%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.24Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/36 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 23 | 93 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Rogers | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Ladarius Green | 5 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/27 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 20 | 43 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14