2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

27·31

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.085
  • 40.7%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.043
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.41CPOE+1.74
  • 38.2%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.24
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:291072Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 7:12443Field goal3–7
PITQ1 5:50422Punt3–7
BALQ1 3:511031Turnover on downs3–7
PITQ2 14:05516Punt3–7
BALQ2 11:41939Punt3–7
PITQ2 7:36623Punt3–7
BALQ2 3:411153Field goal6–7
PITQ2 0:1800End of half6–7
PITQ3 15:0010Turnover6–7
BALQ3 14:47320Touchdown14–7
PITQ3 13:26765Field goal14–10
BALQ3 9:351257Field goal17–10
PITQ3 1:2824Turnover17–10
BALQ3 0:3737Field goal20–10
PITQ4 14:18640Touchdown20–17
BALQ4 11:4137Punt20–17
PITQ4 10:05690Touchdown20–24
BALQ4 7:161475Touchdown27–24
PITQ4 1:18875Touchdown27–31
BALQ4 0:09216Turnover27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco30/4426211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Dixon12574.80
Terrance West10272.70
Michael Campanaro12323.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith77791
Dennis Pitta811750
Breshad Perriman35320
Terrance West33280
Mike Wallace47210
Darren Waller12110
Nick Boyle1150
Kenneth Dixon1310
Kamar Aiken0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3327932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell201226.11
Eli Rogers166.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown1011961
Eli Rogers45840
Jesse James45490
Xavier Grimble12201
Le'Veon Bell34151
DeMarcus Ayers1190
Cobi Hamilton1160
David Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.64