Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.085
- 40.7%Success rate46.0%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.41CPOE+1.74
- 38.2%Third-down rate41.9%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.63Points / drive2.24
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 30/44 | 262 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 8 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/33 | 279 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 20 | 122 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 11 | 96 | 1 |
| Eli Rogers | 4 | 5 | 84 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| DeMarcus Ayers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.64