2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

10·33

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.059EPA / play+0.012
  • 41.0%Success rate42.7%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.105
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.31CPOE+2.15
  • 34.4%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.88
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00612Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:50777Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 8:59528Punt0–7
KCQ1 7:29481Touchdown0–14
DENQ1 5:1738Punt0–14
KCQ1 4:0931Turnover0–14
DENQ1 2:3526Touchdown7–14
KCQ1 1:54284Touchdown7–21
DENQ1 0:53720Punt7–21
KCQ2 12:15954Missed field goal7–21
DENQ2 8:25537Field goal10–21
KCQ2 6:38725Punt10–21
DENQ2 3:2136Punt10–21
KCQ2 1:4936Punt10–21
DENQ2 1:12628Turnover on downs10–21
KCQ2 0:1713End of half10–21
KCQ3 15:00515Punt10–21
DENQ3 11:35725Punt10–21
KCQ3 8:23948Punt10–21
DENQ3 3:5436Punt10–21
KCQ3 2:581048Field goal10–24
DENQ4 11:5900Field goal10–24
KCQ4 11:49515Field goal10–27
DENQ4 8:51638Turnover10–27
KCQ4 6:231028Touchdown10–33
DENQ4 1:52832Turnover10–33

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian17/4318301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker5275.40
Juwan Thompson3196.30
Justin Forsett5112.21
Brandon McManus166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devontae Booker610440
Jeff Heuerman36320
Emmanuel Sanders13260
Jordan Taylor14260
Demaryius Thomas38200
Jordan Norwood11170
Henry Krieger-Coble11130
Bennie Fowler1250
Justin Forsett0100
Juwan Thompson0100
Cody Latimer0200
Kalif Raymond0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith25/3624411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyreek Hill69515.81
Spencer Ware13624.80
Alex Smith44611.51
Charcandrick West14352.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce11121601
Demetrius Harris69371
Spencer Ware23200
Chris Conley22140
Jeremy Maclin3490
Charcandrick West1130
Albert Wilson1130
Tyreek Hill0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.55