Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.012
- 41.0%Success rate42.7%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.31CPOE+2.15
- 34.4%Third-down rate38.7%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.51Points / drive1.88
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 17/43 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Brandon McManus | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Henry Krieger-Coble | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/36 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 95 | 15.8 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 11 | 12 | 160 | 1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 6 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55