Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.056
- 42.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.092EPA / rush+0.028
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.0%
- +4.52CPOE+0.94
- 37.0%Third-down rate41.7%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.80Points / drive2.08
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 16/30 | 233 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 32 | 206 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 56 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 26/39 | 329 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 11 | 91 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 10 | 154 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 8 | 10 | 85 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.77
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.27