2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final / OT

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

34·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 38°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.056
  • 42.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.076
  • -0.092EPA / rush+0.028
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +4.52CPOE+0.94
  • 37.0%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.08
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:4136Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:1035Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:37972Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 6:241152Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ1 0:29464Touchdown14–0
BUFQ2 13:341048Turnover on downs14–0
MIAQ2 8:4832Punt14–0
BUFQ2 7:51789Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 5:06728Punt14–7
BUFQ2 1:443-12Punt14–7
MIAQ2 1:11411Turnover14–7
BUFQ2 0:30326End of half14–7
MIAQ3 15:00570Touchdown21–7
BUFQ3 12:051077Touchdown21–14
MIAQ3 6:46675Touchdown28–14
BUFQ3 3:14478Touchdown28–21
MIAQ3 1:12942Missed field goal28–21
BUFQ4 10:151049Field goal28–24
MIAQ4 5:5133Punt28–24
BUFQ4 4:001089Touchdown28–31
MIAQ4 1:20424Field goal31–31
BUFQ4 0:0600End of half31–31
BUFOT948Missed field goal31–31
MIAOT520Punt31–31
BUFOT837Punt31–31
MIAOT578Field goal34–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore16/3023321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi322066.41
Kenyan Drake45614.01
Jarvis Landry100.00
Matt Moore1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker47851
Damien Williams23510
Kenny Stills38351
Jarvis Landry36290
MarQueis Gray11200
Dion Sims23100
Jay Ajayi1130

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor26/3932930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy241285.31
Mike Gillislee11918.30
Tyrod Taylor12605.00
Reggie Bush1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins7101541
Charles Clay810852
Robert Woods36430
LeSean McCoy56170
Marquise Goodwin15160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.77
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.27