2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

25·38

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.127
  • 42.5%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.253EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.80CPOE+2.71
  • 38.4%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.39
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:00632Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:5536Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:53561Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:13765Field goal3–7
GBQ1 3:37474Touchdown3–14
MINQ1 1:491187Field goal6–14
GBQ2 12:3039Punt6–14
MINQ2 11:03319Turnover6–14
GBQ2 9:47342Touchdown6–21
MINQ2 8:11275Touchdown13–21
GBQ2 7:24711Punt13–21
MINQ2 2:16415Turnover13–21
GBQ2 0:54554Touchdown13–28
MINQ2 0:2414End of half13–28
MINQ3 15:003-3Punt13–28
GBQ3 13:273-7Punt13–28
MINQ3 12:12950Punt13–28
GBQ3 6:2235Punt13–28
MINQ3 5:0132Punt13–28
GBQ3 4:00914Field goal13–31
MINQ4 14:553-1Punt13–31
GBQ4 13:25858Touchdown13–38
MINQ4 9:021375Touchdown19–38
GBQ4 4:203-5Punt19–38
MINQ4 3:391249Touchdown25–38
GBQ4 0:3200End of half25–38
MINQ4 0:3233End of half25–38

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford34/5038230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon11504.50
Matt Asiata6345.70
Sam Bradford252.50
Adam Thielen144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen12152022
Kyle Rudolph69530
Jerick McKinnon56350
Matt Asiata34300
Stefon Diggs46291
Charles D. Johnson14160
Cordarrelle Patterson24130
David Morgan1140
Rhett Ellison0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/3834740
Brett Hundley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery9232.60
Aaron Rodgers2136.51
Christine Michael441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson9111542
Geronimo Allison47660
Davante Adams47441
Jared Cook35370
Richard Rodgers22201
Ty Montgomery45170
Jeff Janis1180
Christine Michael1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.56