Closing spread
GB -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.127
- 42.5%Success rate45.9%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.243
- -0.253EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.80CPOE+2.71
- 38.4%Third-down rate47.4%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.65Points / drive2.39
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 34/50 | 382 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 12 | 15 | 202 | 2 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/38 | 347 | 4 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Christine Michael | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 9 | 11 | 154 | 2 |
| Geronimo Allison | 4 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56