Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.017
- 40.8%Success rate43.8%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.121
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.63CPOE-0.81
- 36.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.46Points / drive1.86
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 38/63 | 356 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Perkins | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 11 | 20 | 150 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 8 | 13 | 84 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 11 | 61 | 1 |
| Will Tye | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 13/24 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.10