2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

19·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -2

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.017
  • 40.8%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.121
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.63CPOE-0.81
  • 36.0%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.86
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:01778Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 9:4835Opp touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 8:2031Punt0–14
PHIQ1 7:3439Punt0–14
NYGQ1 5:581180Field goal3–14
PHIQ1 0:1032Turnover3–14
NYGQ2 14:4334Punt3–14
PHIQ2 13:4436Punt3–14
NYGQ2 11:28839Field goal6–14
PHIQ2 7:28560Touchdown6–21
NYGQ2 4:591284Touchdown13–21
PHIQ2 0:33431End of half13–21
PHIQ3 15:003-4Punt13–21
NYGQ3 13:171066Field goal16–21
PHIQ3 9:091463Turnover on downs16–21
NYGQ3 1:10935Turnover16–21
PHIQ4 11:57633Field goal16–24
NYGQ4 8:47957Field goal19–24
PHIQ4 5:1734Punt19–24
NYGQ4 4:15841Turnover on downs19–24
PHIQ4 1:5435Punt19–24
NYGQ4 1:311051Turnover19–24
PHIQ4 0:0500End of half19–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning38/6335613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Paul Perkins15684.50
Rashad Jennings9444.90
Sterling Shepard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.11201500
Victor Cruz813840
Sterling Shepard711611
Will Tye58230
Bobby Rainey12130
Paul Perkins1290
Jerell Adams1190
Rashad Jennings4570
Roger Lewis0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz13/2415211
Chase Daniel1/11600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews18462.60
Darren Sproles7405.71
Carson Wentz4276.80
Nelson Agholor155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor25471
Zach Ertz22330
Brent Celek33270
Darren Sproles22230
Ryan Mathews11160
Jordan Matthews26120
Dorial Green-Beckham1270
Trey Burton1130
Bryce Treggs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.10