2016 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

17·38

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

44

Model margin

+1.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.037EPA / play-0.060
  • 45.5%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.049EPA / rush-0.210
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +1.12CPOE-4.51
  • 45.6%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 75.2%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.52
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:03416Punt0–7
JAXQ1 9:331068Field goal0–10
TENQ1 4:03624Punt0–10
JAXQ1 1:553-3Punt0–10
TENQ2 15:001154Touchdown7–10
JAXQ2 8:591275Touchdown7–16
TENQ2 1:5744Punt7–16
JAXQ2 1:09748Field goal7–19
TENQ2 0:1100End of half7–19
TENQ3 15:0034Punt7–19
JAXQ3 13:2814Turnover7–19
TENQ3 13:2332Field goal10–19
JAXQ3 12:241017Field goal10–22
TENQ3 8:13414Punt10–22
JAXQ3 6:01755Field goal10–25
TENQ3 2:59723Punt10–25
JAXQ4 15:0034Punt10–25
TENQ4 14:06955Touchdown17–25
JAXQ4 8:42765Touchdown17–31
TENQ4 5:2510Opp touchdown17–38
TENQ4 5:174-1Punt17–38
JAXQ4 3:4938Punt17–38
TENQ4 2:451269Turnover on downs17–38
JAXQ4 0:3600End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel13/2412411
Marcus Mariota8/209910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray14423.00
Derrick Henry4133.30
Marcus Mariota231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Harry Douglas56480
Tajae Sharpe38480
Rishard Matthews39311
Delanie Walker38231
Derrick Henry22220
Kendall Wright24210
DeMarco Murray24180
Anthony Fasano11120

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles26/3832510
Marqise Lee1/12010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory14453.21
Corey Grant9273.00
Blake Bortles372.30
T.J. Yeldon252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson9121470
Chris Ivory46690
Bryan Walters56450
Marqise Lee37371
Blake Bortles11201
Ben Koyack22120
Alex Ellis22100
Corey Grant1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.84