Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.060
- 45.5%Success rate41.3%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.210
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.12CPOE-4.51
- 45.6%Third-down rate34.7%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
- 1.72Points / drive1.52
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/24 | 124 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 8/20 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 9 | 31 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 26/38 | 325 | 1 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1/1 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 9 | 12 | 147 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 3 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Ben Koyack | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Alex Ellis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.84