2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

10·30

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • +0.056EPA / play-0.069
  • 44.9%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.076EPA / dropback-0.069
  • +0.028EPA / rush-0.070
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.94CPOE-4.70
  • 41.7%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.40
  • 1.1%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
BUFQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:43432Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:4158Punt0–0
NYJQ1 6:47948Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ1 1:43610Punt0–0
NYJQ2 14:02780Touchdown0–7
BUFQ2 9:28418Punt0–7
NYJQ2 6:5331Punt0–7
BUFQ2 5:571054Field goal3–7
NYJQ2 1:45963Field goal3–10
NYJQ3 15:00430Punt3–10
BUFQ3 12:4630Punt3–10
NYJQ3 11:49833Turnover on downs3–10
BUFQ3 7:3563Turnover3–10
NYJQ3 5:31313Touchdown3–17
BUFQ3 4:0347Turnover3–17
NYJQ3 2:36524Field goal3–20
BUFQ3 0:01830Turnover on downs3–20
NYJQ4 11:4330Punt3–20
BUFQ4 10:0237Punt3–20
NYJQ4 9:0339Punt3–20
BUFQ4 6:3036Turnover3–20
NYJQ4 5:033-4Field goal3–29
BUFQ4 3:2100Opp touchdown3–30
NYJQ4 3:2100Opp touchdown3–30
BUFQ4 3:21571Touchdown10–30
NYJQ4 0:3900End of half10–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cardale Jones6/119601
EJ Manuel9/208600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee15402.71
Jonathan Williams4112.80
LeSean McCoy5102.00
EJ Manuel284.00
Cardale Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Hunter12640
Robert Woods45430
Sammy Watkins49310
Charles Clay37200
Mike Gillislee11100
Marquise Goodwin1580
LeSean McCoy1160
Brandon Tate0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3021020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell221225.50
Brandon Wilds492.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick200.00
Brandon Burks2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa58810
Robbie Chosen47430
Jalin Marshall34221
Charone Peake25220
Brandon Wilds22200
Bilal Powell33151
Brandon Bostick1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.48