Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play-0.069
- 44.9%Success rate40.5%
- +0.076EPA / dropback-0.069
- +0.028EPA / rush-0.070
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.94CPOE-4.70
- 41.7%Third-down rate36.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.08Points / drive1.40
- 1.1%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardale Jones | 6/11 | 96 | 0 | 1 |
| EJ Manuel | 9/20 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cardale Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 64 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/30 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilds | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Burks | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 5 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jalin Marshall | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Charone Peake | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilds | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.48