Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.017
- 48.6%Success rate43.8%
- +0.226EPA / dropback+0.046
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.121
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.07CPOE-0.81
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.3%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.52Points / drive1.86
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 9/17 | 85 | 0 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 4/8 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3/4 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Darren McFadden | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 27/43 | 245 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Marshall | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Terrell Watson | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 13 | 16 | 139 | 2 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Paul Turner | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Terrell Watson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+5.19
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+5.50