2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Mark Sanchez

13·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.017
  • 48.6%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback+0.046
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.121
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.07CPOE-0.81
  • 43.8%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.86
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:0069Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:151374Field goal0–3
DALQ1 3:57949Field goal3–3
PHIQ2 14:51512Punt3–3
DALQ2 13:00752Touchdown10–3
PHIQ2 10:1131Punt10–3
DALQ2 8:02510Turnover10–3
PHIQ2 6:4941Turnover on downs10–3
DALQ2 5:533-2Punt10–3
PHIQ2 4:1430Punt10–3
DALQ2 2:0210Turnover10–3
PHIQ2 1:57949Touchdown10–10
DALQ2 0:0700End of half10–10
PHIQ3 15:0031Punt10–10
DALQ3 12:39749Field goal13–10
PHIQ3 9:181174Touchdown13–17
DALQ3 4:56615Punt13–17
PHIQ3 0:52957Missed field goal13–17
DALQ4 12:1638Punt13–17
PHIQ4 10:091370Field goal13–20
DALQ4 2:183-19Punt13–20
PHIQ4 1:3937Touchdown13–27
DALQ4 1:23525End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez9/178502
Dak Prescott4/83700
Tony Romo3/42910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden7284.00
Lance Dunbar3206.70
Alfred Morris8121.50
Dak Prescott199.00
Mark Sanchez200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley34490
Terrance Williams35331
Darren McFadden23190
Lance Dunbar36190
Jason Witten11100
Lucky Whitehead1180
Gavin Escobar1370
Alfred Morris1230
Brice Butler1230
Dez Bryant0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz27/4324520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Byron Marshall10424.20
Darren Sproles9323.60
Terrell Watson9283.11
Carson Wentz11313.00
Nelson Agholor1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz13161392
Trey Burton56390
Paul Turner24300
Dorial Green-Beckham15150
Brent Celek1290
Terrell Watson1150
Darren Sproles3540
Byron Marshall1240
Bryce Treggs0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.74
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.19
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+5.50