2016 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

17·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Cassel

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.037
  • 41.9%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.049
  • 6.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -3.29CPOE+1.12
  • 36.9%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.72
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
TENQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:173-14Opp touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:5737Punt0–7
TENQ1 7:5347Punt0–7
HOUQ1 4:3733Punt0–7
TENQ1 3:2833Punt0–7
HOUQ1 2:261636Turnover on downs0–7
TENQ2 10:42627Turnover0–7
HOUQ2 7:09633Missed field goal0–7
TENQ2 4:1937Punt0–7
HOUQ2 3:103-7Punt0–7
TENQ2 2:31836Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 0:2300End of half0–14
HOUQ3 15:001376Touchdown7–14
TENQ3 10:311050Touchdown7–21
HOUQ3 4:44772Field goal10–21
TENQ3 1:111362Field goal10–24
HOUQ4 8:301475Touchdown17–24
TENQ4 3:11728Punt17–24
HOUQ4 0:5349Turnover on downs17–24
TENQ4 0:1500End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler21/4025310
Tom Savage5/82500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue11282.50
Jonathan Grimes8162.00
Brock Osweiler111.01
Tom Savage210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7111230
Wendall Williams24410
Jonathan Grimes45330
Will Fuller37240
Keith Mumphery34230
Alfred Blue34120
C.J. Fiedorowicz27121
Ryan Griffin24100
Stephen Anderson0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel16/2615011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry15654.31
DeMarco Murray11211.90
Marc Mariani11515.00
Matt Cassel221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rishard Matthews9131141
Delanie Walker58350
Derrick Henry1130
Tajae Sharpe0200
DeMarco Murray11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.02