Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.037
- 41.9%Success rate45.5%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.049
- 6.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- -3.29CPOE+1.12
- 36.9%Third-down rate45.6%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.45Points / drive1.72
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 21/40 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 5/8 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tom Savage | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 11 | 123 | 0 |
| Wendall Williams | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 16/26 | 150 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 9 | 13 | 114 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.02