Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
40
Model margin
+1.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutAustin HowardTShoulder· DNP
- OutDerek CarrQBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulKarl JosephSToe· Limited
- QuestionableAmari CooperWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableAndre HolmesWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJalen RichardRBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMalcolm SmithLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMichael CrabtreeWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionablePerry RileyLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableStacy McGeeDTGroin· Limited
Broncos
- OutA.J. DerbyTEConcussion· DNP
- OutDeMarcus WareLBBack· DNP
- OutDerek WolfeDENeck· DNP
- OutKayvon WebsterCBConcussion· DNP
- OutT.J. WardSConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon MarshallLBHamstring· Limited
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:15 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 5:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:33 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 1:14 | 7 | 85 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 11:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 9:18 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 6:40 | 7 | -4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 4:08 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q2 1:14 | 6 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 38 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| DEN | Q3 13:00 | 11 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| LV | Q3 8:14 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–24 |
| DEN | Q3 6:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LV | Q3 4:38 | 3 | 63 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q3 3:09 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| LV | Q3 2:56 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q3 1:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–24 |
| LV | Q4 14:53 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q4 14:45 | 3 | 8 | Missed field goal | 6–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:22 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q4 11:52 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 6–24 |
| LV | Q4 8:33 | 6 | 44 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q4 5:59 | 5 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 6–24 |
| LV | Q4 3:51 | 5 | 10 | Turnover on downs | 6–24 |
| DEN | Q4 2:57 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 6–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 17/27 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Juwan Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.