Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
40
Model margin
+1.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 17/27 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Juwan Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 52 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.