2017 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

21·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.119
  • 44.9%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.134
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.86CPOE-2.16
  • 40.7%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.24
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
DENQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:30426Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:551370Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 4:501035Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 14:5534Punt7–7
LACQ2 13:19613Punt7–7
DENQ2 10:05956Touchdown7–14
LACQ2 5:27736Punt7–14
DENQ2 1:46510End of half7–14
LACQ3 15:0034Turnover7–14
DENQ3 13:27648Touchdown7–21
LACQ3 10:2731Punt7–21
DENQ3 8:161378Field goal7–24
LACQ4 15:00625Turnover on downs7–24
DENQ4 11:5830Turnover7–24
LACQ4 10:37643Touchdown14–24
DENQ4 8:1028Turnover20–24
LACQ4 7:07138Touchdown21–24
DENQ4 7:00428Missed field goal21–24
LACQ4 4:0749Punt21–24
DENQ4 3:0437Punt21–24
LACQ4 2:00819Missed field goal21–24
DENQ4 0:0100End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers22/3319231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon18543.00
Branden Oliver4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyrell Williams57540
Travis Benjamin34431
Keenan Allen510351
Melvin Gordon56251
Austin Ekeler22180
Antonio Gates23170
Branden Oliver0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian17/2821921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson20814.00
Jamaal Charles10404.00
Trevor Siemian6193.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas58670
Virgil Green11440
A.J. Derby33340
Emmanuel Sanders36260
Bennie Fowler34212
Jeff Heuerman12200
C.J. Anderson1370
Jamaal Charles0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.16