Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.119
- 44.9%Success rate38.4%
- +0.191EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.86CPOE-2.16
- 40.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.87Points / drive1.24
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 22/33 | 192 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 54 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Williams | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 17/28 | 219 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 3 | 4 | 21 | 2 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.16