2017 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

12·21

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 65°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

42

Model margin

+2.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.071
  • 38.5%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.000EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.135
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.98CPOE-0.28
  • 36.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.47
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001574Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 8:4836Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:57429Punt0–0
NYJQ1 4:21410Punt0–0
BUFQ1 1:571277Touchdown0–7
NYJQ2 11:26845Field goal3–7
BUFQ2 6:34657Missed field goal3–7
NYJQ2 3:59725Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 1:446-1Punt6–7
NYJQ2 0:3000End of half6–7
NYJQ3 15:00614Punt6–7
BUFQ3 12:0034Punt6–7
NYJQ3 10:4134Punt6–7
BUFQ3 9:05664Touchdown6–14
NYJQ3 6:521175Touchdown12–14
BUFQ3 2:00980Touchdown12–21
NYJQ4 12:47622Punt12–21
BUFQ4 9:2535Punt12–21
NYJQ4 7:3132Turnover12–21
BUFQ4 6:3332Punt12–21
NYJQ4 4:58412Punt12–21
BUFQ4 3:51720Punt12–21
NYJQ4 1:4410Turnover12–21
BUFQ4 1:3500End of half12–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown26/3918702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell7223.10
Matt Forte6162.70
Josh McCown200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse79590
Will Tye33340
Eric Tomlinson22250
Robbie Chosen48220
Matt Forte35200
Bilal Powell56170
ArDarius Stewart25100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor16/2822421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy221105.00
Tyrod Taylor8384.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews23610
Charles Clay49531
LeSean McCoy56490
Nick O'Leary12220
Zay Jones14210
Patrick DiMarco1150
Andre Holmes1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.77