Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.071
- 38.5%Success rate39.0%
- -0.000EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.135
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.98CPOE-0.28
- 36.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.51Points / drive1.47
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 26/39 | 187 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 7 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 16/28 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77