2017 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

37·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

42

Model margin

+4.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.020
  • 42.6%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.43CPOE-2.97
  • 36.0%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.81
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:251151Field goal0–3
TENQ1 7:241053Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 2:1634Punt3–3
TENQ1 0:4736Punt3–3
JAXQ2 14:2334Punt3–3
TENQ2 13:3034Punt3–3
JAXQ2 11:5168Turnover3–3
TENQ2 8:52315Turnover3–3
JAXQ2 7:331142Turnover3–3
TENQ2 2:131153Field goal6–3
JAXQ3 15:0034Turnover6–3
TENQ3 14:04941Field goal9–3
JAXQ3 9:2446Punt9–3
TENQ3 7:22234Touchdown16–3
JAXQ3 6:3657Punt16–3
TENQ3 4:23349Touchdown23–3
JAXQ3 2:49832Punt23–3
TENQ3 0:16536Touchdown23–3
TENQ4 12:2212Touchdown23–3
TENQ4 11:44453Touchdown30–3
JAXQ4 9:57675Touchdown30–9
TENQ4 7:12625Touchdown37–9
JAXQ4 4:14677Touchdown37–16
TENQ4 2:11318End of half37–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota15/2721511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry14926.61
DeMarco Murray9252.80
Marcus Mariota6244.00
David Fluellen3186.00
Taywan Taylor2168.00
Jalston Fowler133.01
Delanie Walker111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker44610
Rishard Matthews35430
Taywan Taylor11420
Eric Decker35320
Jonnu Smith23301
Corey Davis1340
DeMarco Murray1230

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles20/3422312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette14402.91
Blake Bortles4297.30
Chris Ivory6172.80
Corey Grant11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns67821
Marqise Lee712760
Chris Ivory34310
Leonard Fournette25210
Keelan Cole23130
Marcedes Lewis0200
Ben Koyack0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.88