Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
42
Model margin
+4.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.020
- 42.6%Success rate41.7%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.43CPOE-2.97
- 36.0%Third-down rate36.9%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.73Points / drive1.81
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/27 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 14 | 92 | 6.6 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Fluellen | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 20/34 | 223 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 6 | 7 | 82 | 1 |
| Marqise Lee | 7 | 12 | 76 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88