Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 16/26 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Derby | 4 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.