Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBShin· Limited
- QuestionableKeith McGillSFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMichael CrabtreeWRChest· DNP
- DNPSean SmithCBNot Injury Related
Broncos
- OutPaxton LynchQBright Shoulder· DNP
- QuestionableCody LatimerWRKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 11:28 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 8:11 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 5:17 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 1:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 12:03 | 7 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 9:01 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:59 | 5 | 99 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 3:36 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:00 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q3 12:48 | 5 | 55 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LV | Q3 9:40 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 7:13 | 4 | 3 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| LV | Q3 5:06 | 4 | 1 | Turnover on downs | 7–16 |
| DEN | Q3 2:26 | 6 | 4 | Missed field goal | 7–16 |
| LV | Q4 14:09 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–16 |
| DEN | Q4 12:06 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–16 |
| LV | Q4 8:30 | 8 | 73 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| DEN | Q4 5:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–16 |
| LV | Q4 4:16 | 7 | 22 | Turnover | 10–16 |
| DEN | Q4 1:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 16/26 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Derby | 4 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.