2017 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

14·57

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · open · astroturf

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+5.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.053
  • 42.6%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.43CPOE-2.95
  • 36.0%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.47
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
TENQ1 15:0034Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 14:01443Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 12:1338Punt0–7
HOUQ1 10:161176Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 5:0935Punt0–14
HOUQ1 3:41976Touchdown0–21
TENQ2 14:54580Touchdown7–21
HOUQ2 11:441253Field goal7–24
TENQ2 6:01775Touchdown14–24
HOUQ2 1:5048Touchdown14–30
TENQ2 1:1910Turnover14–30
HOUQ2 1:12533Turnover14–30
TENQ2 0:1000End of half14–30
HOUQ3 15:001572Touchdown14–37
TENQ3 6:5137Punt14–37
HOUQ3 5:1237Punt14–37
TENQ3 3:2733Punt14–37
HOUQ3 1:461153Touchdown14–44
TENQ4 11:1920Turnover14–44
HOUQ4 10:55420Field goal14–47
TENQ4 8:3910Opp touchdown14–54
TENQ4 8:31512Turnover14–54
HOUQ4 5:5030Field goal14–57
TENQ4 3:343-1Punt14–57
HOUQ4 2:0634Punt14–57
TENQ4 0:1613End of half14–57

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota6/109602
Matt Cassel4/102102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota4399.82
DeMarco Murray7314.40
Derrick Henry671.20
Taywan Taylor166.00
David Fluellen133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker37510
Rishard Matthews38490
Eric Decker22130
DeMarco Murray2240
Taywan Taylor0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson25/3428341

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller19753.91
D'Onta Foreman13453.50
Deshaun Watson4246.01
Bruce Ellington11313.00
Alfred Blue4123.00
Will Fuller144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10121071
Lamar Miller45561
Bruce Ellington34440
Will Fuller46352
Stephen Anderson22280
Ryan Griffin25130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.94
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.14