Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.053
- 42.6%Success rate40.4%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.43CPOE-2.95
- 36.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 1.73Points / drive1.47
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 6/10 | 96 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Cassel | 4/10 | 21 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 2 |
| DeMarco Murray | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| David Fluellen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25/34 | 283 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 12 | 107 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 6 | 35 | 2 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.14