2017 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

22·36

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

46

Model margin

+2.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.069
  • 38.7%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.086
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -4.56CPOE+0.43
  • 38.0%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.73
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:00825Field goal0–3
INDQ1 11:15852Field goal3–3
TENQ1 6:451056Field goal3–6
INDQ1 0:47973Touchdown10–6
TENQ2 10:541172Field goal10–9
INDQ2 4:101261Field goal13–9
TENQ2 0:1400End of half13–9
INDQ3 15:0034Punt19–9
TENQ3 13:5810Opp touchdown19–9
TENQ3 13:50730Field goal19–12
INDQ3 9:4335Punt19–12
TENQ3 8:3436Punt19–12
INDQ3 7:34214Turnover19–12
TENQ3 6:38426Field goal19–15
INDQ3 4:3534Punt19–15
TENQ3 3:251697Touchdown19–22
INDQ4 10:01517Field goal22–22
TENQ4 7:27475Touchdown22–29
INDQ4 5:291047Turnover on downs22–29
TENQ4 2:19587Touchdown22–36
INDQ4 0:47320End of half22–36

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett21/3721210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore10494.90
Marlon Mack2189.00
Jacoby Brissett4153.80
Robert Turbin331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donte Moncrief57670
Jack Doyle711501
Robert Turbin45370
Kamar Aiken24210
T.Y. Hilton14190
Frank Gore23180
Marlon Mack0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota23/3230611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry191316.91
DeMarco Murray12403.31
Marcus Mariota200.00
Delanie Walker1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker79880
Rishard Matthews44690
Taywan Taylor24611
DeMarco Murray44470
Delanie Walker48170
Derrick Henry11140
Jonnu Smith11100
Phillip Supernaw0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41