Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
46
Model margin
+2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.069
- 38.7%Success rate42.6%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.086
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.56CPOE+0.43
- 38.0%Third-down rate36.0%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.22Points / drive1.73
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 21/37 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donte Moncrief | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 7 | 11 | 50 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 23/32 | 306 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 131 | 6.9 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 7 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41