2017 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

0·21

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

41

Model margin

+4.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • -0.119EPA / play+0.085
  • 38.4%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.16CPOE+0.86
  • 38.9%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.24Points / drive1.87
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
DENQ1 15:00329Turnover0–0
LACQ1 13:31734Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 10:51618Opp touchdown0–7
DENQ1 7:2737Punt0–7
LACQ1 5:333-4Punt0–7
DENQ1 3:56413Punt0–7
LACQ1 1:0832Punt0–7
DENQ2 15:0047Punt0–7
LACQ2 13:02965Touchdown0–14
DENQ2 7:07722Turnover0–14
LACQ2 4:0031Punt0–14
DENQ2 2:5736Punt0–14
LACQ2 2:0930Punt0–14
DENQ2 1:4037Punt0–14
LACQ2 0:5028End of half0–14
LACQ3 15:0039Punt0–14
DENQ3 12:57518Punt0–14
LACQ3 9:44520Punt0–14
DENQ3 6:48412Punt0–14
LACQ3 4:47417Punt0–14
DENQ3 2:471039Turnover0–14
LACQ4 12:351195Touchdown0–21
DENQ4 5:42948Turnover on downs0–21
LACQ4 2:185-5Punt0–21
DENQ4 0:56325End of half0–21

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian25/3520701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson10444.40
Trevor Siemian2147.00
Devontae Booker263.00
Jamaal Charles420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Derby67660
Bennie Fowler55450
Devontae Booker34220
Jamaal Charles44200
C.J. Anderson12170
Demaryius Thomas2690
Virgil Green1270
Jordan Taylor1270
Hunter Sharp0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers15/2618320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon18382.10
Austin Ekeler7385.40
Travis Benjamin144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry45730
Travis Benjamin11421
Keenan Allen37410
Tyrell Williams11110
Melvin Gordon1460
Austin Ekeler4461
Antonio Gates1140
Mike Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.64