Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
41
Model margin
+4.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play+0.085
- 38.4%Success rate44.9%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.16CPOE+0.86
- 38.9%Third-down rate40.7%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.24Points / drive1.87
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 25/35 | 207 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Derby | 6 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Hunter Sharp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 15/26 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.64