Closing spread
KC -7
Total
42
Model margin
+3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutDonald StephensonTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableDerek WolfeDEHand· Limited
- QuestionableEmmanuel SandersWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableTodd DavisLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableVirgil GreenTEShoulder· Full
Chiefs
- QuestionableJustin HoustonLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableLaurent Duvernay-TardifGKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play+0.082
- 38.4%Success rate44.2%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.16CPOE+4.58
- 38.9%Third-down rate39.2%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.24Points / drive2.21
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 14:01 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:49 | 3 | 18 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 9:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 7:50 | 6 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q1 6:11 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| KC | Q1 5:59 | 5 | 34 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q1 3:55 | 12 | 71 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 11:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 10:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 9:07 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| DEN | Q2 5:02 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| KC | Q2 4:00 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| DEN | Q2 1:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–17 |
| KC | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 13:24 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| DEN | Q3 12:30 | 8 | 60 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| KC | Q3 8:11 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–20 |
| DEN | Q3 6:58 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| KC | Q3 1:14 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| DEN | Q4 12:30 | 5 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 13–23 |
| KC | Q4 10:06 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 13–26 |
| DEN | Q4 7:03 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 13–26 |
| KC | Q4 6:23 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 13–29 |
| DEN | Q4 4:41 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 19–29 |
| KC | Q4 1:55 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 19–29 |
| DEN | Q4 0:48 | 3 | 29 | End of half | 19–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 19/36 | 198 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/31 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 22 | 46 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 133 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.47