Closing spread
KC -7
Total
42
Model margin
+3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.119EPA / play+0.082
- 38.4%Success rate44.2%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -2.16CPOE+4.58
- 38.9%Third-down rate39.2%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.24Points / drive2.21
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 19/36 | 198 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/31 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 22 | 46 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 133 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.47