Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
42
Model margin
+0.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.073
- 39.0%Success rate38.5%
- -0.024EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.181
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.28CPOE+0.98
- 42.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.47Points / drive1.51
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 29/40 | 285 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Thompson | 7 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Nick O'Leary | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 14/20 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 14 | 77 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Bilal Powell | 9 | 74 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.71