2017 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

21·34

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

42

Model margin

+0.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.073
  • 39.0%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.181
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.28CPOE+0.98
  • 42.2%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.51
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:093-12Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:29854Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 7:43531Punt0–7
NYJQ1 4:4839Punt0–7
BUFQ1 3:081057Touchdown7–7
NYJQ2 14:52947Field goal7–10
BUFQ2 10:26614Punt7–10
NYJQ2 6:51624Punt7–10
BUFQ2 3:18944Turnover7–10
NYJQ2 0:5545End of half7–10
BUFQ3 15:0031Punt7–10
NYJQ3 13:39864Touchdown7–17
BUFQ3 9:5034Punt7–17
NYJQ3 8:3048Punt7–17
BUFQ3 6:4338Punt7–17
NYJQ3 5:13261Touchdown7–24
BUFQ3 4:16439Turnover7–24
NYJQ3 2:26819Punt7–24
BUFQ4 13:0158Turnover7–30
NYJQ4 11:2615Touchdown7–31
BUFQ4 11:2147Turnover on downs7–31
NYJQ4 10:29518Field goal7–34
BUFQ4 6:421075Touchdown14–34
NYJQ4 4:1000Touchdown14–34
BUFQ4 4:071031Touchdown21–34
NYJQ4 2:29311End of half21–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor29/4028520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor6355.81
LeSean McCoy12252.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deonte Thompson710811
Zay Jones67531
Nick O'Leary45510
Jordan Matthews68460
Logan Thomas23250
Andre Holmes13160
LeSean McCoy0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown14/2014010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte14775.52
Bilal Powell9748.20
Elijah McGuire13302.30
Josh McCown5132.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen45481
Jermaine Kearse26380
Austin Seferian-Jenkins22200
Matt Forte44190
Elijah McGuire1190
Eric Tomlinson1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.71