2017 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -7
Total
54
Model margin
+3.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.092
- 44.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.167EPA / rush+0.026
- 6.5%Explosive rate12.4%
- +3.38CPOE+4.74
- 42.9%Third-down rate38.5%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.79Points / drive2.37
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 8/15 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 7/13 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Bernard Reedy | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/27 | 263 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41