2017 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

10·30

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

54

Model margin

+3.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.092
  • 44.2%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.167EPA / rush+0.026
  • 6.5%Explosive rate12.4%
  • +3.38CPOE+4.74
  • 42.9%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.37
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:001158Field goal0–3
TBQ1 8:4938Opp touchdown0–9
TBQ1 6:31824Punt0–9
NOQ1 2:3732Punt0–9
TBQ1 1:4268Punt0–9
NOQ2 14:131060Turnover0–9
TBQ2 8:41945Field goal3–9
NOQ2 2:57793Touchdown3–16
TBQ2 0:5533Punt3–16
NOQ2 0:3014End of half3–16
TBQ3 15:0034Punt3–16
NOQ3 13:30672Touchdown3–23
TBQ3 9:5926Turnover3–29
NOQ3 9:46136Touchdown3–30
TBQ3 9:3935Punt3–30
NOQ3 8:17743Missed field goal3–30
TBQ3 3:561041Missed field goal3–30
NOQ4 14:4732Punt3–30
TBQ4 12:26937Punt3–30
TBQ4 8:14319Touchdown10–30
NOQ4 6:48841End of half10–30

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick8/156810
Jameis Winston7/136700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber11343.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick33010.00
DeSean Jackson188.00
Jameis Winston284.00
Doug Martin870.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson24250
Peyton Barber23200
Bernard Reedy11150
Adam Humphries22140
Luke Stocker22131
Mike Evans16130
Charles Sims22110
Cameron Brate1490
Chris Godwin Jr.1190
O.J. Howard1260

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/2726320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram16774.80
Alvin Kamara10686.81
Drew Brees420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara67841
Michael Thomas811650
Ted Ginn45591
Coby Fleener22460
Brandon Coleman1170
Mark Ingram1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.41