Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.082
- 39.0%Success rate44.2%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.28CPOE+4.58
- 42.2%Third-down rate39.2%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.47Points / drive2.21
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 19/29 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 22 | 49 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 10 | 33 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/36 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91