2017 · Week 12

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

16·10

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -8.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.082
  • 39.0%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.28CPOE+4.58
  • 42.2%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.21
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
BUFQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:413-1Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:3838Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:3836Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:14411Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:0500Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:5734Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:53946Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 1:2939Punt7–0
BUFQ2 14:51528Field goal10–0
KCQ2 12:0138Punt10–0
BUFQ2 10:171244Missed field goal10–0
KCQ2 3:30432Field goal10–3
BUFQ2 1:44738Field goal13–3
KCQ2 0:0400End of half13–3
KCQ3 15:001085Touchdown13–10
BUFQ3 9:19429Field goal16–10
KCQ3 6:524-2Punt16–10
BUFQ3 4:383-2Punt16–10
KCQ3 2:47414Punt16–10
BUFQ3 0:3037Punt16–10
KCQ4 14:1335Punt16–10
BUFQ4 12:04839Punt16–10
KCQ4 7:09842Turnover on downs16–10
BUFQ4 2:493-2Punt16–10
KCQ4 2:28935Turnover16–10
BUFQ4 1:1000End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor19/2918310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy22492.20
Travaris Cadet6284.70
Tyrod Taylor9273.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay44600
Zay Jones310331
LeSean McCoy44300
Travaris Cadet33210
Nick O'Leary22180
Jordan Matthews23150
Deonte Thompson1360

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith23/3619911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Smith5357.00
Kareem Hunt11171.50
Tyreek Hill2136.50
Akeem Hunt1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill711410
Travis Kelce34390
Albert Wilson37361
Demetrius Harris22330
Demarcus Robinson24240
Kareem Hunt1190
Charcandrick West3470
Akeem Hunt1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.91