Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.4est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- QuestionableAdam GotsisDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDomata PekoDTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableEmmanuel SandersWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJeff HeuermanTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableShane RayLBWrist· Limited
Raiders
- OutDavid AmersonCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableCordarrelle PattersonWRHip· DNP
- QuestionableCory JamesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJohnny HoltonWRConcussion· Limited
- DNPBruce IrvinLBNot Injury Related
- DNPKhalil MackDENot Injury Related
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 14:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:31 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 8:53 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:23 | 4 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 3:38 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:36 | 2 | -4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 0:47 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:06 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 8:45 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:49 | 10 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q2 2:49 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:19 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q2 0:42 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 0–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q3 11:08 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q3 6:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LV | Q3 4:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q3 2:31 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LV | Q3 1:37 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–21 |
| DEN | Q4 14:09 | 10 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q4 10:21 | 8 | 36 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| DEN | Q4 5:46 | 13 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LV | Q4 2:39 | 3 | 56 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 11/21 | 149 | 2 | 0 |
| Paxton Lynch | 9/14 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton Lynch | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Austin Traylor | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.