2017 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

20·16

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.107
  • 42.6%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.115
  • 7.7%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +0.43CPOE-4.56
  • 36.0%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.22
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
INDQ1 15:003-8Punt0–0
TENQ1 14:031148Field goal3–0
INDQ1 7:5445Punt3–0
TENQ1 5:15547Field goal6–0
INDQ1 1:521462Field goal6–3
TENQ2 10:05414Turnover6–3
INDQ2 8:321050Field goal6–6
TENQ2 2:0720Turnover6–6
INDQ2 1:54634Touchdown6–13
TENQ2 0:381-2End of half6–13
TENQ3 15:0033Punt6–13
INDQ3 13:021255Field goal6–16
TENQ3 6:05632Punt6–16
INDQ3 2:5720Turnover6–16
TENQ3 2:1522Touchdown13–16
INDQ3 1:50531Punt13–16
TENQ4 14:42416Punt13–16
INDQ4 12:5038Punt13–16
TENQ4 11:241072Touchdown20–16
INDQ4 5:59417Punt20–16
TENQ4 3:54746End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota17/2518412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry13796.10
DeMarco Murray1290.81
Marcus Mariota341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker45631
Corey Davis44390
DeMarco Murray34330
Eric Decker34230
Derrick Henry12100
Harry Douglas1380
Taywan Taylor1280

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett17/2919600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17623.61
Jacoby Brissett3165.30
Marlon Mack4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle78940
Chester Rogers34340
Marlon Mack22200
Frank Gore25170
Donte Moncrief13160
T.Y. Hilton25150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+1.39