Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.107
- 42.6%Success rate38.7%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.43CPOE-4.56
- 36.0%Third-down rate38.0%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.73Points / drive1.22
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 17/25 | 184 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 9 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/29 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 7 | 8 | 94 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+1.39