Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play-0.069
- 40.4%Success rate42.6%
- -0.004EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.95CPOE+0.43
- 36.6%Third-down rate36.0%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.47Points / drive1.73
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 31/49 | 365 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 14 | 80 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 5 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Braxton Miller | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/23 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 109 | 9.9 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.35