2017 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

13·24

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • -0.053EPA / play-0.069
  • 40.4%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.95CPOE+0.43
  • 36.6%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.73
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:00928Field goal3–0
TENQ1 9:21758Missed field goal3–0
HOUQ1 4:54416Punt3–0
TENQ1 2:44830Punt3–0
HOUQ2 13:57777Touchdown10–0
TENQ2 10:401170Touchdown10–7
HOUQ2 4:181149Missed field goal10–7
TENQ2 0:38427Field goal10–10
HOUQ2 0:0300End of half10–10
TENQ3 15:0032Punt10–10
HOUQ3 13:261660Missed field goal10–10
TENQ3 5:201080Touchdown10–17
HOUQ3 0:03419Punt10–17
TENQ4 13:285-2Punt10–17
HOUQ4 11:311467Field goal13–17
TENQ4 4:373-1Punt13–17
HOUQ4 2:47758Turnover13–17
TENQ4 1:08380Touchdown13–24
HOUQ4 0:4642End of half13–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage31/4936511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller15563.70
Alfred Blue420.50
Tom Savage1-1-1.00
Andre Ellington2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins814800
Stephen Anderson512791
Braxton Miller44710
Andre Ellington56560
Lamar Miller44380
C.J. Fiedorowicz23160
Chris Thompson12110
Alfred Blue1170
Bruce Ellington1270

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota15/2315010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry111099.91
DeMarco Murray11666.00
Marcus Mariota3237.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker55631
Eric Decker36270
Phillip Supernaw11200
Taywan Taylor22150
DeMarco Murray22130
Corey Davis24120
Jonnu Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.35