Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play+0.047
- 45.3%Success rate45.0%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.185
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.152
- 12.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- +4.74CPOE+2.96
- 38.5%Third-down rate44.1%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 2.37Points / drive2.02
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/35 | 271 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 14 | 117 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 15/27 | 221 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 24 | 91 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.28