2017 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

17·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.092EPA / play+0.047
  • 45.3%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.185
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.152
  • 12.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +4.74CPOE+2.96
  • 38.5%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.02
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:00954Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 9:50955Field goal3–3
NOQ1 5:33640Punt3–3
ATLQ1 2:1236Punt3–3
NOQ1 1:10629Punt3–3
ATLQ2 12:561790Touchdown3–10
NOQ2 4:29566Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 1:53626Turnover10–10
NOQ2 0:0400End of half10–10
ATLQ3 15:0010Turnover10–10
NOQ3 14:46429Touchdown17–10
ATLQ3 13:10746Turnover17–10
NOQ3 10:26516Punt17–10
ATLQ3 8:02516Punt17–10
NOQ3 4:223-4Punt17–10
ATLQ3 2:011564Touchdown17–17
NOQ4 9:5547Punt17–17
ATLQ4 7:46738Field goal17–20
NOQ4 3:491069Turnover17–20
ATLQ4 1:2524End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3527121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram12494.10
Drew Brees122.00
Alvin Kamara122.00
Ted Ginn1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas10141171
Mark Ingram45430
Brandon Coleman23320
Tommylee Lewis22301
Alvin Kamara33250
Josh Hill23140
Ted Ginn22100
Michael Hoomanawanui0100
Willie Snead1200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan15/2722113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman24913.81
Tevin Coleman9323.60
Taylor Gabriel199.00
Matt Ryan300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones511980
Mohamed Sanu68831
Austin Hooper24230
Taylor Gabriel11100
Levine Toilolo1170
Marvin Hall0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.28