Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.071
- 39.2%Success rate39.0%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.198EPA / rush-0.135
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.06CPOE-0.28
- 31.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.47
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 28/49 | 274 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 10 | 13 | 99 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 11 | 35 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/29 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Nick O'Leary | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.59