2017 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

16·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 22°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.071
  • 39.2%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.198EPA / rush-0.135
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.06CPOE-0.28
  • 31.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.47
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001081Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:1249Punt0–7
BUFQ1 8:273-4Punt0–7
MIAQ1 7:07650Field goal3–7
BUFQ1 3:16418Punt3–7
MIAQ1 1:191371Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 9:15875Touchdown6–14
MIAQ2 6:05618Punt6–14
BUFQ2 2:23875Touchdown6–21
MIAQ2 0:3328End of half6–21
MIAQ3 15:0034Turnover6–21
BUFQ3 14:06722Turnover on downs6–21
MIAQ3 11:18726Turnover6–21
BUFQ3 7:46422Field goal6–24
MIAQ3 5:4034Punt6–24
BUFQ3 4:06711Punt6–24
MIAQ3 0:27768Punt6–24
BUFQ4 11:3733Punt6–24
MIAQ4 9:32613Touchdown13–24
BUFQ4 7:57726Punt13–24
MIAQ4 4:331678Field goal16–24
BUFQ4 0:3900Turnover16–24
MIAQ4 0:3710Turnover16–24
BUFQ4 0:2800End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler28/4927403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake16784.91
Jay Cutler284.00
MarQueis Gray273.50
Jakeem Grant177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry1013990
DeVante Parker612890
Kenyan Drake611350
Anthony Fasano22150
Julius Thomas24150
Jakeem Grant11130
Kenny Stills1680

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor17/2922410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy20502.51
Tyrod Taylor6427.01
Travaris Cadet4246.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay59680
LeSean McCoy45461
Nick O'Leary22330
Brandon Tate11210
Kelvin Benjamin22200
Deonte Thompson14160
Travaris Cadet11140
Patrick DiMarco1260
Zay Jones0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.59