2017 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

13·23

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

52

Model margin

+2.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.092
  • 45.0%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.152EPA / rush+0.026
  • 9.7%Explosive rate12.4%
  • +2.96CPOE+4.74
  • 44.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.37
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:35740Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 7:31540Punt0–3
NOQ1 4:44715Punt0–3
ATLQ1 0:27930Punt0–3
NOQ2 9:401571Field goal0–6
ATLQ2 1:19423Turnover0–6
NOQ2 0:50364Touchdown0–13
ATLQ2 0:1400End of half0–13
NOQ3 15:0020Turnover0–13
ATLQ3 14:132-2Turnover0–13
NOQ3 13:3037Punt0–13
ATLQ3 11:57629Field goal3–13
NOQ3 9:3433Punt3–13
ATLQ3 7:44517Punt3–13
NOQ3 4:53454Touchdown3–20
ATLQ3 2:52774Turnover on downs3–20
NOQ4 14:56613Punt3–20
ATLQ4 11:24418Field goal6–20
NOQ4 10:18736Punt6–20
ATLQ4 6:103-2Punt6–20
NOQ4 4:00416Field goal6–23
ATLQ4 3:38875Touchdown13–23
NOQ4 2:4000Punt13–23
ATLQ4 0:23411End of half13–23

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3628811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman11363.30
Taylor Gabriel11212.00
Tevin Coleman6122.00
Matt Ryan273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones7111490
Tevin Coleman44401
Mohamed Sanu46310
Taylor Gabriel14200
Devonta Freeman23200
Austin Hooper34180
Justin Hardy11100
Marvin Hall0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees21/2823911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram13443.41
Alvin Kamara12322.70
Ted Ginn2147.00
Drew Brees4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn45761
Michael Thomas45660
Alvin Kamara79580
Mark Ingram33220
Josh Hill23110
Willie Snead1360

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.28