Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
52
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.092
- 45.0%Success rate45.3%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.152EPA / rush+0.026
- 9.7%Explosive rate12.4%
- +2.96CPOE+4.74
- 44.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 2.02Points / drive2.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/36 | 288 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 11 | 149 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/28 | 239 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.28