Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.125
- 39.0%Success rate39.2%
- -0.024EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.198
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- -0.28CPOE-0.06
- 42.2%Third-down rate31.0%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.47Points / drive1.31
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 19/27 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Murphy | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 11 | 10 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Fales | 29/42 | 265 | 1 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 0 |
| David Fales | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Senorise Perry | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 9 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| De'Veon Smith | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Senorise Perry | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77