2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

22·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.125
  • 39.0%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.198
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -0.28CPOE-0.06
  • 42.2%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.31
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:26767Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 10:141280Turnover on downs7–0
BUFQ1 4:381165Field goal10–0
MIAQ2 14:463-3Punt10–0
BUFQ2 12:42615Punt10–0
MIAQ2 9:23616Punt10–0
BUFQ2 6:05619Punt10–0
MIAQ2 2:0239Punt10–0
BUFQ2 1:27824Punt10–0
MIAQ2 0:1112End of half10–0
BUFQ3 15:00842Field goal13–0
MIAQ3 10:17528Turnover on downs13–0
BUFQ3 8:43619Touchdown19–0
MIAQ3 7:081152Field goal19–3
BUFQ3 2:30960Field goal22–3
MIAQ4 11:411185Touchdown22–9
BUFQ4 6:1632Punt22–9
MIAQ4 4:501069Touchdown22–16
BUFQ4 1:5600Turnover22–16
MIAQ4 1:5229Turnover22–16
MIAQ4 1:2636Turnover22–16
BUFQ4 0:4900End of half22–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor19/2720410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Murphy7415.90
Tyrod Taylor6355.80
LeSean McCoy11100.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay68640
Kelvin Benjamin23270
Nick O'Leary12261
Zay Jones23250
Deonte Thompson23230
LeSean McCoy23220
Marcus Murphy2270
Patrick DiMarco1140

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Fales29/4226511
Jay Cutler1/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake14755.40
David Fales482.01
Senorise Perry382.70
MarQueis Gray122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry910921
DeVante Parker67640
Kenny Stills37340
De'Veon Smith33270
Jakeem Grant35260
Kenyan Drake33150
A.J. Derby1490
Senorise Perry1130
Anthony Fasano1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.77